With McLaren’s announcement of Hamilton’s promotion to second race driver for the coming season, it looks as though there is only one seat left to be filled in F1: the second Spyker drive. That is assuming that Gerhard Berger is telling us the whole truth when he says there will be no changes at Toro Rosso for 2007 – the official announcement has yet to be made.

My bet is that Tiago Monteiro will get the Spyker drive. The team know him and none of the other drivers have been outstanding in their tests for the team. A threat of sorts came from Christian Klien but he has now been confirmed as a Honda test driver so that takes him out of the equation.

The teams that are sticking with their drivers for next year are Toyota, Honda, Spyker and, if you count the last few races of 2006, BMW Sauber. These are the ones that know exactly what they can expect from their drivers, have already established a working relationship with them and are satisfied with their choice. And that should give them a slight advantage over other teams that are still settling down after changes and learning how to get the best from their new drivers.

Or so it would seem. In fact, we all know that Spyker will not be challenging for race wins so any advantage they have will make little difference to the leaders. And Toyota’s choice seems typically conservative to me, a driver pairing that has already shown itself to be subject to some strain, with Ralph tending to underperform and Jarno more interested in his own career than in the success of the team. This is one team that could have done with a good shake-up on the driver front; I’d have sacked them both and looked for a good veteran and a promising youngster.

But that is not Toyota’s way. The reputation for reliability of their road cars is founded upon their philosophy that nothing new goes on the car until it has been tried and tested to the point of boredom. And this seems to be spilling over into the race team; they are not known for their introduction of fresh and innovative new designs in F1.

Which may go a long way to explaining their failure to deliver on the success we expect from a big manufacturer in the sport. Had they decided to go with a more radical driver line-up for 2007, their chances would be better, I think.

The other two unchanged teams, Honda and BMW, are the bright hopes for the future, of course. Both of them are looking very good, they have potentially exciting drivers and the ambition and ingenuity to succeed. My only doubt comes from BMW’s caution when it comes to their prospects for next season; they are low key on this and clearly do not expect to be challenging for a championship just yet.

That may be realistic but it also indicates a certain surprise at their progress so far. They are ahead of schedule and seem a little unsure of themselves as a result. And one thing we do know: any team that is going to win the championship must be absolutely convinced that they can do it.

Things are very different at Honda. They expected to be in amongst the leaders in 2006 and their disappointment at their results in the first half of the year showed in changes in personnel and rumblings from upper management. The fact that they did turn things around in the last races of the season shows that, whatever they changed, it was a step in the right direction and they are motivated now to erase the embarrassments of 2006. Conviction and determination will not be lacking in the Honda camp next year, methinks.

All of which is good for Button and Barrichello. Both drivers have made a habit of being in the wrong place at the right time or the right place at the wrong time. It may just be that, at last, they have managed to get everything right and 2007 will be theirs for the taking.

Autosport magazine reports that Toyota wants Bridgestone to allow them to test on extra days during the winter tests. The Japanese tire company are resisting this suggestion as it would break the agreement already reached over testing and coincidentally require them to supply more tires when their facilities are already under pressure.

Although the team deny any knowledge of the request, it appears that it emanates from the highest level of Toyota management. And Bridgestone are adamant that they will not depart from their previous agreement regarding tests and tires to be supplied in their quest to be even-handed in their new role as sole supplier of tires to F1. A Bridgestone spokesperson said: “The problem we have now is that this has gone beyond one team talking to its tyre supplier. In effect they’ve called their dad and we’ve called ours, so it has gone right to the top and got very complicated.”

Which bodes well for the coming season. Many are expecting that previous Bridgestone customers will have an advantage in the new year because they already have a working relationship with the tire supplier. Yet, on this evidence, it seems that Bridgestone intend to be completely fair in their handling of the monopoly. Taking into account that fact that the tire for 2007 will be completely different from those produced this year, it is difficult to see how any team will have much of an advantage from previous experience of using Bridgestone tires.

And that is how it should be; the idea of a single tire manufacturer was to cut the huge costs involved in seeking a tiny advantage over a competing tire supplier. It may seem a step back from the cutting edge of technology so necessary to F1 but in reality a standardized tire formula enables the engineers and drivers to compete on the same terms, thereby allowing the best engineered cars to reap their just rewards.

It will also take away an excuse for poor performance; teams will no longer be able to blame a bad race result on their tires but rather on their use of them. So the best teams will still come out on top, regardless of whether they have used Bridgestones before or not, particularly as the winter tests should wipe away any remaining advantage to being a Bridgestone customer in 2006.

The team that just might be at a disadvantage over tires is Spyker – they have said that they will not participate in the winter tests, preferring to develop the new car within the factory. This might leave them with some ground to make up in the early part of the season but I can’t see it being significant. Once they have the new car dialled in, it should be as competitive as it was always going to be (which is being very coy about how good I think the Spyker will be – well, wouldn’t you have doubts too?).

So I see the Bridgestone/Toyota news as good for the sport; as long as Bridgestone resist any pressure to vary the testing schedule, the likelihood is that they will be just as fair when the new season gets under way.

While all eyes are focused on Ferrari as they begin their re-organization of the team after the departure of Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn, Williams are quietly undergoing a revolution too. With new financial backing from AT&T, the communications giant, and new employees pouring into the factory, the possibility of a Williams revival presents itself.

That is the thing with Williams: you just cannot write them off. They have proved too often in the past that they can compete at the highest level and their dissatisfaction with their results this year, plainly spoken of by Sir Frank and Patrick Head, has increased their determination to make a come-back. Add everything together and you have a team with enormous potential: good finance, fresh blood, Toyota engines and long experience.

The traditional Williams weaknesses remain, however, the most obvious one being their attitude to drivers. Sir Frank has always regarded the driver as just another component to be slotted in and out at will and his replacement of Mark Webber with the much cheaper Alex Wurz is just another example of this. Had the AT&T deal come along sooner, the team might have retained Webber; as it is, their driver line-up for next year looks a little frail.

Yes, Nico Rosberg seems quick, honest and professional. But he is still young and prone to occasional mistakes. So the experience will have to be supplied by Alex and he’s had plenty of it. He is competent and sometimes quick but somehow that extra spark of determination is lacking. What the team needs for next year is a star and I don’t think they have one.

Perhaps the most important part of the equation is the Toyota engine deal. As I have said previously, this may be the first step in a process that results in a Toyota/Williams merger in the future. Toyota is hungry for success and isn’t getting it; Williams miss past glories and want them back. If the two teams can combine their talents, they might both achieve their ambitions.

Looking into my crystal ball, I see 2007 as an important year for Williams. Never mind the championships, constructor’s or driver’s; their aim must be to beat the Toyotas. If they can do that, their future is assured.

In the recent FIA survey, Toyota emerged as the least popular of the F1 teams. Why that should be so I have no idea, especially when one considers that the team’s main spokesperson, Pascal Vasselon, is one of the most articulate and level-headed people in the sport. When he speaks, I listen.

Autosport magazine has posted an interview with Pascal today and he discusses the Brazilan race from a position of considerable knowledge and understanding of the Interlagos circuit. For instance, we have heard a lot about the bumps on the track but only M. Vasselon has pointed out that they are a problem that won’t go away. As the name suggests (Interlagos means “between the lakes”), much of the circuit is built upon a lake bed and it is the instability of the underlying ground that causes the bumps.

He then goes into some detail on how the unpredictability of the Brazilian weather affects race strategy and it makes interesting reading. The fact that the rain does not cool the track surface much has an effect on the suitability of wet weather tires, for example. It all adds up to an explanation for the Brazilian Grand Prix often springing surprises. And that has to make the racing more exciting for the fans.

Most team managers are very bullish when asked about a team’s prospects for the next race; they will talk about it as if they were in with a real chance of victory (and we know they can’t all be right). But Pascal is refreshing in his sober assessment of Toyota’s chances. They are “reasonably optimistic of a strong performance” it seems.

To me, that seems exactly the right blend of optimism and realism. Pascal is one of those who are not afraid to “tell it like it is”.