Many of the teams have been testing at the Barcelona circuit, with Felipe Massa predictably fastest in the Ferrari and the other drivers getting used to the Bridgestone tires. Although the times are meaningless at this early stage, they are listed in an article in Autosport magazine if you’re interested.

Autosport also has a very revealing interview after the first day’s runs with Super Aguri’s new driver, Anthony Davidson. He confirms that the Bridgestones are very different from the Michelins he was used to and that it will take time to adjust the car to get the best from them. Apparently the tires slide more and, although he found this quite entertaining, it is difficult to post good times as a result.

Which would seem to confirm all the talk of last year’s Bridgestone customers having an early season advantage until we remember that these are not the 2006 tires but an older compound that all the teams are going to have to get used to. By the time the season kicks off in Australia next year, I think that everyone will know pretty well what to expect from their tires; it will, in fact, be the proverbial level playing field that was impossible as long as two tire manufacturers were involved in F1.

In spite of Davidson’s troubles with the tires at the test, he was still respectable in the Super Aguri, posting 11th fastest time, ahead of the Toro Rossos and Red Bulls. The news on Aguri is that they will be racing a development of this year’s Honda chassis, the RA106, and will slip through the loophole in the regulations identified by Red Bull with the Toro Rosso car of 2006. As long as components are manufactured by a third party, it seems, it does not matter who assembles them and Aguri has made sure that their car for next year will qualify accordingly.

Clearly the regulations are not stringent enough to ensure that each team builds its own car from scratch and it is probably impossible to achieve this anyway. All teams use parts designed and built by other companies. We now have two teams effectively running second squads under thin disguises, Red Bull with Toro Rosso and Honda with Super Aguri. Why they should want to spread their effort so thinly, I have no idea, but they have made me doubt the wisdom of the regulation in the first place.

Presumably the intent of the rule is to prevent places in F1 being collared by existing competitors when there are other teams waiting for a gap to open up so that they can become involved. This has not happened so why bother with regulating it at all? Running two teams will soon prove too expensive and wasteful for most companies (I doubt that Red Bull and Honda will keep it going for long) and the gaps will appear in the long run.

In the fifties there were no restrictions on how many cars a team could enter and it was quite common for there to be three or four cars run by a single entrant. At the time, there was no pressure on the numbers of cars racing and the arrangement worked well enough, even though it gave larger teams a greater chance of having a car finish the race. But nothing has changed in that respect; the larger teams still enjoy certain benefits over the smaller ones, not the least of which is money.

It all makes me think that there needs to be less regulation in F1, not more. At the moment the rules are so complicated that lawyers are sometimes needed to decide on finer points that arise. That can hardly be good for the sport.

One thing that never varies between seasons is the optimistic outlook of every team in F1. Looking at the possibilities and listening to the reported statements, it is easy to think that everyone is going to do well next year.

Yet we know life isn’t like that; always there are losers as well as winners. Some amongst the teams will find their hopes dashed and have to transfer their optimism to 2008. And part of the game in the off season is in guessing who will fail to achieve their objectives.

The big disappointment this year was the Honda team – everyone expected them to be pushing for race wins but they came good only at the end of the year. Red Bull, too, had a poor season and are now admitting that they gave up on the RB2 from its first race, deciding that it was a lost cause and they would be better employed preparing for 2007. David Coulthard had an even tougher year than we knew about, it seems. But, having put so much work into Adrian Newey’s RB3, Red Bull are expecting great things in the coming season. We shall see.

Anthony Davidson has been talking about his reaction to being taken on as a race driver by Super Aguri and his optimism is a little more guarded than others, understandably so. To aim for points and to be pushing Takuma Sato hard by the end of the year are both realistic ambitions. There are always a few chaotic races in the year when small teams can gather a point or two. But I hope he does better than “push Taku hard”!

Over at Toro Rosso, Gerhard Berger has said that their driver line-up will be unchanged for 2007, although no official announcement has been made as yet. Which is good news for Scott Speed, in view of all the rumors that Robert Doornbos was being considered as a replacement for him. The American has been talking of his hopes for the season, perhaps more confident now that his place seems assured, and he, too, expects to score points for the team.

So who is going to lose out after all this talk? It would be easy to pick the losers from previous seasons but, ever a supporter of underdogs, I hope they all do as well as they expect to. The one I would really like to see fall flat on its face is Ferrari – which is not exactly likely, I know. But when Luca di Montezemolo “promises” the fans the 2007 championships, my natural reaction is to wish fervently for him to have to eat his words.

Optimism is one thing, a promise another thing entirely.

We tend to forget that, in every race, someone has to come last. And the guys fulfilling this useful role most often in 2006 have been the Super Aguri team. I was fairly dismissive of their efforts in my previous post on them, but it may be that I was wrong. A study of the fastest laps in the Brazilian Grand Prix reveals the surprising information that the Aguri drivers managed to be seventh and ninth fastest.

Okay, we can point out that these times were done fairly late in the race after some cars had retired and others were taking it easy to ensure finishing. But the Aguri times are up there with drivers who were still involved in the battle to keep Michael Schumacher back:

4 Jenson Button, Honda, Lap 70, 1:13.053
5 Giancarlo Fisichella, Renault, Lap 70, 1:13.121
6 Kimi Raikkonen, McLaren, Lap 58, 1:13.281
7 Sakon Yamamoto, Super Aguri, Lap 67, 1:13.379
8 Rubens Barrichello, Honda, Lap 48, 1:13.391
9 Takuma Sato, Super Aguri, Lap 47, 1:13.401
10 Vitantonio Liuzzi, Toro Rossi, Lap 69, 1:13.687

To be amongst that sort of company, the car must have become increasingly competitive as the race progressed. The Renault team had the decency to share their championship champagne with the Super Aguri guys, recognizing that Sato’s tenth place finish was an important milestone for the tail-enders.

This was achieved with a car that is still essentially an ancient Arrows chassis, considerably modified and powered by a Honda engine. Next year the team will have to produce a chassis from scratch and that will be an important step forward for them. Their goal must be to move away from the tail end of the field, although it is difficult to see who would take their place. All of the smaller teams go into 2007 with high expectations and it is impossible to predict who will be successful and who won’t.

But things look brighter than I expected for Super Aguri and, when we hear that Anthony Davidson is in with a good chance of racing for them next season, we can have some hope that he will do well.

I see that Super Aguri are muttering about using Honda chassis as well as engines next year. That would be a huge step forward from the outdated Arrows chassis they have modified (twice) to produce their cars this season, but it is extremely doubtful that the FIA would allow it.

Years ago, all you had to do to go racing was buy one of the previous year’s cars from an existing constructor and turn up on time. If you went to March, you could even have the current year’s model. Quite a few famous drivers began their F1 careers in such entries and some of the constructors used secondhand cars to tide them over difficult years. But things have been tightened up since then.

The FIA has reasoned that, if you’re going to compete for the constructor’s championship, you ought to be a constructor, not just a purchaser. That seems reasonable and now, if you want to enter F1, you have to pass stringent tests as to your financial viability and ability to build a competitive car. Even then, only one new constructor is accepted each year, so you will have to look better than anyone else seeking entry. Prodrive beat several other applicants in their bid to be the next F1 hopefuls.

I cannot see the FIA accepting the use of a Honda chassis by Super Aguri, therefore. Given the improvement in performance of the latest model, the SA06, it is doubtful that this would be the way forward for the team anyway. If they can make an ancient Arrows even vaguely competitive, it surely augurs well for their ability to build a car from scratch.

No doubt the problem is money. Super Aguri is a small team and have had difficulty in keeping to their original schedule for development of their car. The construction of a new car may be more than their finances can take, as well as being an enormous strain on their personnel. It might even be the case that the Honda option is their only possible route to survival.

But that is Formula One; if the money isn’t there, you’re dead. History is littered with the bones of F1 projects that started out so hopefully but ran out of money long before success guaranteed them decent sponsorship. And Super Aguri’s rather desperate plan to become a “Honda B team” does not bode well for their future.