A few posts ago, I made the crazy prediction that Jenson Button would be World Champion in 2007. That was done in a rash moment of enthusiasm but, since then, it has begun to appear a little less insane than I thought at the time. If ever there was a chance for a team outside the Big Three to get in there and cause a few upsets to the status quo, next year looks like being the right time.

All of the top teams, Ferrari, Renault and McLaren, are experiencing big changes for the coming season. Ferrari has replaced departing important members of the team with new faces as well as a new driver, Renault has lost perhaps the best driver of the moment and must rebuild with unknown quantities, and McLaren has to halt its slide from the top while coping with personnel changes. It is unlikely that any of them will have as bad a season as Williams did this year, but the chances of chinks in their armor appearing are increased by such fundamental changes. If one of the lesser teams gets everything right suddenly, this would be their chance to steal the trophies.

As far as I can see, there are only two teams who are poised to produce the kind of performance necessary to win races consistently: BMW Sauber and Honda. Both raised their games towards the end of this season and became visitors to the podium. If they continue this surge into 2007, wins become very possible.

Of the two, it seems to me that Honda is the more likely to come good. BMW were surprised to do as well as they have this year and that speaks to me of limited ambition. Their drivers, too, do not convince me. Robert Kubica may be the find of the season but he still has a lot to learn; it’s too early for him to have the consistency necessary to win a championship. And word is that Heidfeld is not as fast as Kubica in races…

Honda, however, will have pretty much the same team as last year (okay, I know they lost an aerodynamicist to McLaren but one designer does not a team make). Both of their drivers have something to prove – Barrichello that he is not just a cast-off second man from Ferrari, Button that the promise of former years is still there and just waiting for the right equipment. And Button will have been fired up by Bernie Ecclestone’s comments of a few weeks ago.

All it needs is for Honda to build a good car. That was expected this year but the competition proved too strong. If they are able to improve the car and have learned from the mistakes of 2006, the championship should be within their capability. And I pick Button over Barrichello because he seems hungrier to me.

Of the other hopefuls, Toyota seem unable to capitalize when things go right, it will take a year for Adrian Newey’s presence at Red Bull to have full effect and Williams will have their hands full adjusting to the Toyota engine.

So I’m giving Jenson Button one more chance. It would be easy to say Raikkonen will walk it or Alonso will knock McLaren into shape to surprise us all. But no, that’s just not me – to take the obvious route. I can still dream, after all…

I see that Rubens Barrichello has been talking about his season with Honda and blaming much of his poor form on the team. We knew already that he found it difficult to adapt to the car after having been with Ferrari for so long but Rubens goes further and says that there was an unwillingness to listen to his suggestions for improvements.

The 34-year-old hit out specifically at the Honda car’s inferior traction control system and says he spent too much time working to improve it.

Barrichello also struggled to adapt after developing an unique braking setup at Ferrari, and criticised Brackley based Honda for not listening to his requests for changes.

All of which may be true but it is not exactly good politics to mention such things to the press. I can’t imagine that Rubens will be flavor of the month with the team if they read all that – such matters should be sorted out in discussion with the team and not in public.

But I also wonder whether Rubens ever thought about why the team was taking no notice of his requests. It is fairly unusual for a team not to listen when a driver suggests changes that might improve the car, after all, and I see no reason why Honda should be different in this respect.

Oops, I’ve said it now – it may well be that it’s that word “respect” that had an influence there. It seems to me that Rubens may be suffering from the “Michael Schumacher Effect” – that aura that surrounds any Schumacher teammate after they depart in search of their own success. Everyone knows that, to be a Schumacher teammate, you had to toe the line, be prepared to hand over wins to the number one (and Rubens did a fair bit of that) and generally make your own interests subsidiary to the demands of the master.

It is not a situation that argues for a driver’s ambition and will to be the best. All of Michael’s teammates left his team only to find that their careers dwindled into nothingness (just ask Johnny Herbert, for instance). Their reputation was established and they were now seen as number two drivers.

It may well be that this is what poor Rubens has struggled against this season. If the Honda technicians lacked respect for him, even subconsciously, in regarding him as a number two driver, it is no wonder that they were reluctant to change the car as he suggested.

So now Rubens is talking about banging on the table and insisting on getting his way. But I have the feeling it might be too late for that and talking to the press is certainly the wrong way to begin.

Jenson Button must be grinning secretly to himself.

The qualifying sessions for the Chinese Grand Prix have confirmed what we already knew: Michelin’s wet tire has an advantage over Bridgestone’s. With the track very wet from the start and then drying slowly and in patches, the Bridgestone runners were in trouble. Of them all, only Michael Schumacher managed to squeeze into Q3.

He then put the Ferrari into sixth spot on the grid, almost a superhuman feat, given the disadvantage of the tires. Whatever we think of him as a man, there is no doubting his driving skills.

It was Michelin’s day, however, and they made the best of it. The Renaults were the class of the field, easily grabbing the front row, Alonso on pole. Perhaps surprisingly, the Hondas were next up with Barrichello third and Button fourth. Their times were identical but the Brazilian set his before Jenson and so goes ahead.

Then came the McLarens, sandwiching Michael. Raikkonen did very little running until Q3, perhaps confident that he could get the time when he needed it. And, although Pedro de la Rosa spun his McLaren into some elegant manouvers off-track, he will be sufficiently close to his teammate to support him in the race.

The BMW Saubers were next up, Heidfeld ahead of Kubica, and tenth spot was claimed by Robert Doornbos – an excellent effort for his first race for Red Bull.

Now thoughts turn to the race, of course, and that means the weather. The meteorologists seem a little confused and some are predicting dry conditions, others opt for rain. All we can say for sure is that, if it rains, the Renaults will win. If it turns out dry, they will still be in with a very good chance but Michael and Kimi are not likely to make it easy for them.

Highlight of qualifying? That has to be Scott Speed in his Toro Rosso – for a few minutes it looked as though he would make it into Q3. And his time in Q2 would have put him in seventh spot, had he been able to repeat it. As it is, he starts from eleventh – not a bad effort at all.

I am beginning to think that Brazil has a new star. Not only did Felipe Massa win in Turkey, he made it look easy. Michael can mutter about pace cars and pit stops as much as he likes but the fact is Massa was better all weekend and made no mistakes.

There were a handful of occasions when Barrichello was Michael’s teammate that he too looked the better, but they were few and far between. The difference in what Massa is doing is that he keeps improving in both technique and maturity, leading us to wonder just how much better he can get as he learns the Ferrari. He is still in his first season with the team, remember.

You can say that Massa gained the pole only through a couple of Schumacher mistakes but that ignores the reason for mistakes; invariably, they are the result of trying too hard. And, if Michael was twice pressured into mistakes that cost him pole position, it would seem pretty clear that he knew he had his work cut out to beat Massa. The Renaults were never a threat to him.

As it happens, the result was both the worst and best possible for Ferrari. Worst, because Michael lost out on a victory that would have closed the gap to Alonso in the championship; best because the team gained on Renault and because they avoided the embarrassing scenario of having to order Massa to let Michael through into the lead. Would they have done it? Jean Todt won’t say now, of course, but Massa was ready to do it, slowing on his final lap in case Michael managed to get past Alonso.

It was a good race for the fans too, with plenty of battles and overtaking throughout the field. Button confirmed that the Honda is coming good with a strong and unchallenged drive to fourth. Barrichello reiterated the lesson with race-long duels ending in a well-deserved eighth place.

Kubica looked good in the BMW Sauber until the tires went off. Although the team were disappointed with their performance, I would say that they have great days to look forward to with the young Polish driver; all it needs is that they start getting the tire choice right.

Otherwise, it was pretty much business as usual, with the Toyotas making it difficult for themselves but showing what might have been, the Williams fading away after a good start and the little teams flying off the road at every opportunity. McLaren had a race they will want to forget as soon as possible.

But it was Massa’s day, even if we couldn’t keep our eyes off the Schumacher/Alonso battle in the last few laps. That is the way with dominant wins – they lack the excitement of a tussle, merely demonstrating the superiority of man and machine on the day. Who would bet against Massa having one or two more like that before the end of the season?

If he’s allowed to, of course…