Ferrari grab the best times at the second session of testing at Barcelona and suddenly everyone thinks they are the team to beat again. It’s like Andy Warhol’s fifteen minutes of fame – first McLaren, then BMW and now Ferrari. Any bets on which team will be favorite next?

What it really means is that there is very little to choose between a lot of the teams. Alonso reckons there are five in with a chance of winning GPs: Ferrari, McLaren, Renault, BMW and, although still a little behind the best, Honda. To that list I would add Williams and Toyota. Red Bull has been disappointing to date and we can only presume that Toro Rosso will be more of the same since they will be running a very similar car. And Super Aguri and Spyker have their sights set a little lower than race wins this year at least.

That leaves a lot of teams in the running but of one thing we can be sure – the numbers will thin out once racing starts in earnest. Some of those who show well now will fade in the heat of competition and unexpected weaknesses will appear. The problem is in working out which of the contenders will maintain the challenge throughout the season.

The big three have an advantage in this through experience; we expect them to do well because they always do. Sooner or later the old order must change, however, and the chances of it happening this season are very high. BMW are looking like the team that could upset the apple cart. The car has been consistently good at all the circuits so far and the drivers and team members seem focused and quietly efficient. Their moment may have arrived rather earlier than Mario Theissen expected but, if they can build on early successes, they could be in with a chance of a championship.

We have seen a lot of change over this off season and big changes usually bring about re-shuffling of established orders. In 1979, the year ground effect spread to everyone, Lotus failed to capitalize on Chapman’s invention and were nowhere, while Williams emerged as top rank contenders for the first time. The fact that Ferrari managed to squeeze out a last gasp championship that year might be a good omen for them in 2007 but I doubt it. This time around, they are the team that has had more change than any other.

1979 was also the year that Ligier won the first two races with their JS11 and looked the team to beat, only to fade away as the season wore on. Could BMW be the Ligier of 2007?

Over at From the Kerbside, Rob Jones has posted regarding Flavio Briatore’s recent outburst against McLaren and Ferrari. The point is really that nobody knows how things will pan out this coming season so it’s all hot air from the team managers as they attempt to out-psyche the competition.

If it’s anyone’s guess what will happen, I might as well chime in with my own predictions, knowing full well that F1 is the sport that turns crystal balls into plain old glass globes. I have already said that Button will be champion (hope springs eternal) but I’ll add to that by suggesting that Honda will not win the constructor’s title. That will go to McLaren.

So, team by team, here is what will (or might) happen:

Renault: Fisichella surprises everyone by winning a couple of races in the early season but the challenge fades as time wears on. Kovalainen has flashes of great promise but something always goes wrong. The team end the season by fighting with Ferrari for third place.

Ferrari: Raikkonen and Massa push each other off in the first race and everything becomes very strained in the camp thereafter. Kimi wins a couple but so does Massa and the Raikkonen luck remains, the Finn picking up whatever Ferrari retirements are going. By mid-season the team is in disarray and Brawn is recalled to restore order. The resultant improvement is all that keeps them level with Renault. Raikkonen signs for Williams in 2008.

McLaren: They start slowly but get better and better so that Alonso becomes locked in battle with Button in the last few races. Hamilton also improves steadily and ensures that they win the constructor’s championship. Rumors of a Mercedes buy-out become stronger as the season progresses.

Honda: Begin where they left off, just a little behind the leaders. But the car improves steadily and they find a few tweaks that enable Button to hit the front and win a few races mid-season. By the end, Jenson has a narrow lead over Alonso and just pips him for the championship by two points. Barrichello says the car doesn’t suit his driving style.

BMW Sauber: Are in shock after Kubica wins the first race. Convinced they must be doing something wrong to have messed up their schedule so badly, they try out a host of tweaks to the car that only make it less competitive and they finish the season with one win and a few podiums, exactly where they expected to be. Theissen says they are aiming for two wins in 2008.

Toyota: Promise much but fail to deliver. Ralf and Trulli share out the few podiums going but the team is embarrassed by Williams beating them in most of the races. At the end of the year Toyota buys Williams and merges the two teams.

Red Bull: The RB3 chassis turns out to be very good but there are problems getting the Renault engine to reach its potential. Too often the cars retire and Coulthard and Webber finish the season mid-field, frustrated and insisting that 2008 will be better.

Williams: Improve steadily throughout the season so that, by the halfway point, they are beating the Toyotas consistently. Rosberg is mounting a challenge for the title by then but a bout of mysterious engine failures ruins his final races.

Toro Rosso: Running what is effectively an RB3 chassis, TR have no problems mating it with the Ferrari engine and are strong second-rank contenders from the start. The season develops into a battle between the TR drivers and Red Bull and Mateschitz sells the team to Prodrive for 2008. Gerhard Berger has a drive in a McLaren in the off season.

Spyker: Steady improvement throughout the season. Sutil turns out to be something of a find and he earns the team’s first podium in the last race.

Super Aguri: Have a disappointing year considering they are running a car that looks very much like a Honda. Sato is quick at times but Davidson is more consistent and earns the team’s solitary point.

Well, it could happen…