Having made a wild prediction that Jenson Button will be champion in 2007, naturally I have been awaiting the unveiling of Honda’s new car with some interest. The launch has been quite low key and optimism reined in so that we are not led to expect miracles. I like that – we’ll see soon enough in the races just how good the car is.

The car is still in its interim black livery, the new colors not to be revealed until next month, and this makes it difficult to see what changes have been made. But it is performing well enough in early testing, apart from stopping on Button’s first lap in it. That is what testing is all about, after all – identifying any problems now rather than in the races. Both drivers seem very happy with it and Barrichello especially is sounding confident.

This realistic but determined attitude seems to run throughout the team. After the disappointments of last year and then the flourish at the end, no doubt they have learned their lesson and are not going to set themselves unattainable goals this time. Maybe it’s my hope that they can upset the old order (which has been unassailable for a while now) but I think we will see Button leading quite a few races this year. Even Flavio Briatore added Honda as an afterthought to his list of most likely winners.

Speaking of Flavio, I see he’s been having a go at Ron Dennis again, mocking McLaren’s takeover of Valencia for the launch of the MP4-22. And he’s right, of course – no matter how much of an extravaganza you put on for the launch, all that really matters is how well the car performs in the races.

On that basis, Honda’s launch was just right – never mind the hype, we’re here to do the business.

Over at From the Kerbside, Rob Jones has posted regarding Flavio Briatore’s recent outburst against McLaren and Ferrari. The point is really that nobody knows how things will pan out this coming season so it’s all hot air from the team managers as they attempt to out-psyche the competition.

If it’s anyone’s guess what will happen, I might as well chime in with my own predictions, knowing full well that F1 is the sport that turns crystal balls into plain old glass globes. I have already said that Button will be champion (hope springs eternal) but I’ll add to that by suggesting that Honda will not win the constructor’s title. That will go to McLaren.

So, team by team, here is what will (or might) happen:

Renault: Fisichella surprises everyone by winning a couple of races in the early season but the challenge fades as time wears on. Kovalainen has flashes of great promise but something always goes wrong. The team end the season by fighting with Ferrari for third place.

Ferrari: Raikkonen and Massa push each other off in the first race and everything becomes very strained in the camp thereafter. Kimi wins a couple but so does Massa and the Raikkonen luck remains, the Finn picking up whatever Ferrari retirements are going. By mid-season the team is in disarray and Brawn is recalled to restore order. The resultant improvement is all that keeps them level with Renault. Raikkonen signs for Williams in 2008.

McLaren: They start slowly but get better and better so that Alonso becomes locked in battle with Button in the last few races. Hamilton also improves steadily and ensures that they win the constructor’s championship. Rumors of a Mercedes buy-out become stronger as the season progresses.

Honda: Begin where they left off, just a little behind the leaders. But the car improves steadily and they find a few tweaks that enable Button to hit the front and win a few races mid-season. By the end, Jenson has a narrow lead over Alonso and just pips him for the championship by two points. Barrichello says the car doesn’t suit his driving style.

BMW Sauber: Are in shock after Kubica wins the first race. Convinced they must be doing something wrong to have messed up their schedule so badly, they try out a host of tweaks to the car that only make it less competitive and they finish the season with one win and a few podiums, exactly where they expected to be. Theissen says they are aiming for two wins in 2008.

Toyota: Promise much but fail to deliver. Ralf and Trulli share out the few podiums going but the team is embarrassed by Williams beating them in most of the races. At the end of the year Toyota buys Williams and merges the two teams.

Red Bull: The RB3 chassis turns out to be very good but there are problems getting the Renault engine to reach its potential. Too often the cars retire and Coulthard and Webber finish the season mid-field, frustrated and insisting that 2008 will be better.

Williams: Improve steadily throughout the season so that, by the halfway point, they are beating the Toyotas consistently. Rosberg is mounting a challenge for the title by then but a bout of mysterious engine failures ruins his final races.

Toro Rosso: Running what is effectively an RB3 chassis, TR have no problems mating it with the Ferrari engine and are strong second-rank contenders from the start. The season develops into a battle between the TR drivers and Red Bull and Mateschitz sells the team to Prodrive for 2008. Gerhard Berger has a drive in a McLaren in the off season.

Spyker: Steady improvement throughout the season. Sutil turns out to be something of a find and he earns the team’s first podium in the last race.

Super Aguri: Have a disappointing year considering they are running a car that looks very much like a Honda. Sato is quick at times but Davidson is more consistent and earns the team’s solitary point.

Well, it could happen…

Shuhei Nakamoto, the Honda senior technical director, has been speaking of the way forward for the F1 team. Obviously, he read my recent post on Toyota for he identifies the same weakness that was infecting Honda and details the remedy applied.

Innovation is the most important factor in F1 design; without it one can only hope to run just behind the teams that are breaking new ground. Nakamoto has instilled this concept into his design team and his methods of doing so form the perfect blueprint for racing success. I particularly like this statement:

“We flattened the organisation so that everyone working in (each) department can talk freely about their ideas and opinions.”

That is a philosophy that uses all the talents and ideas of any team and we saw the result in Honda’s improvement mid-season in 2006. It seems to me that Honda have found the right man to take Honda to the championship in the coming year. Button for 2007!

I have to admit, however, that I am reminded of an old joke that should perhaps be allowed to rest in its forty-year old grave. But I cannot resist; please excuse this rare lapse into levity:

It seems that in the early days of testing the new Concorde airliner, the engineers ran into a problem. Every time the plane was put into a dive, the wings would break off. This was disconcerting for the test pilots, who were becoming fed up with the repeated need to bail out, and the engineers were frantic in their efforts to find a solution.

Money was running short and still the wings refused to remain attached to the plane. In desperation, the engineers put a suggestion box on the shop floor and tried all the responses they received but none worked. Finally, at the eleventh hour, they were down to the last suggestion, one so ludicrous it had been dismissed without a thought.

It made no sense at all. The idea was to drill two-inch diameter holes along the complete length of the wing roots. Surely this must weaken the structure, thought the engineers; but desperation makes fools of us all and they decided to give it a try. The holes were drilled and the plane tested.

To everyone’s amazement, it worked. The plane was soon swooping around the skies, doing barrel rolls, vertical dives, anything that was asked of it. So impressed were the engineers by this that they started a search for the genius who had suggested the cure. It turned out to have come from Albert, the plant’s lavatory cleaner. He was called up to the design office and congratulated.

During the course of the celebrations, the chief engineer asked Albert how he’d come up with the idea. The old cleaner answered in his rough cleaner’s dialect:

“Well, sor, I been lavatory cleaner at this ‘ere plant for nigh on thorty-foive year now. And I tell ee, in orl that toime, I done noticed that toilet paper never do tear along the dotted line…”

I’m sorry. I’ll shut up now.

Nick Fry of the Honda team has responded to Ron Dennis’ dismissal of F1 drivers, other than Schumacher, Alonso and Raikkonen, as having less to offer than Lewis Hamilton. Dennis claimed that “If you take out the recognised top three, one of whom retired, we felt that in looking at the others…there was no-one who really shone.”

Clearly annoyed that Jenson Button should be included by implication in that blanket assessment, Nick Fry maintains that the Honda driver has joined the elite of F1.

“I believe that Jenson is up there with both Alonso and Raikkonen as the top three,” he said. “There’s others that will do well from time to time but in terms of consistently high performance he’s in the top three without a shadow of a doubt.

“Lewis Hamilton will do extremely well, I have absolutely no doubt about that, but it will probably take a little bit of time,” he said.

“He may do well in the first race but I think we’ve seen with other younger drivers that it takes a bit of experience to do well in every race. And in order to compete for the championship, you’ve got to do well in every race.

“Jenson is the consummate professional, he drives himself very, very hard and there’s not been one time in the last couple of years…where I’ve felt he’s really put a foot out of place.”

It is good to see that Honda still believe in Jenson; expectations in Britain were probably too high when he first entered F1 and the disappointments of the years that followed have eroded his support. This takes no account of Button’s misfortune in being in the right places at the wrong times, however. The list of teams he has driven for looks good (Williams, Benetton, BAR) but invariably he has been with them in their weaker years.

The telling thing about Jenson has been his performance against teammates, especially in racing rather than qualifying. He has consistently finished ahead of such competition as Ralf Schumacher, Jarno Trulli (eat your heart out, Toyota) and Jacques Villeneuve. And, in 2006, he got the better of Rubens Barrichello.

Clearly, the potential is still there. All that remains to be seen is whether Jenson can perform at the top for a whole season and win the championship. If the car is good, and it really ought to be, I believe Button can do it.

What I particularly like is this quote from Nick Fry:

“Before the race (in Brazil) we were very clear that to have a chance of getting on the podium from 14th on the grid he had to overtake six cars on the first two laps,” he said.

“Jenson said ‘I can do that’. It wasn’t a matter of persuading him, it was ‘I definitely can do that’. And he did. And I think that is really the difference after Hungary compared to prior to that.”

That doesn’t sound like a man who thinks his best days are over. To be that confident after so many previous disappointments shows that Jenson can weather the storm and come out on top in the end.