McLaren have had a pretty poor year, not winning a single race as yet with only one to go. Their car has not been as competitive as we have come to expect and, to add to their woes, they have suffered from reliability problems and accidents, often at the moments they seemed most likely to grab a win. It has been enough to make anyone wonder about the wisdom of Alonso’s decision to drive for them in 2007.

What we should remember, however, is that McLaren have a habit of bouncing back. If their car is not as good as intended one year, you can bet that the next one will be something special. With Mercedes determined not to be embarrassed by their compatriots, BMW, there can be no doubt that the folks at Woking are slaving away at plans for next season. Alonso is likely to be the beneficiary of all the hard work, design genius and money that McLaren will expend this winter.

So Alonso’s decision may not be as rash as appears at first sight. This is even more so when one considers the problems of the most likely opposition. Renault will have a driver line-up that is less than perfect; although I expect Fisichella to rise to the occasion as lead driver, I still have my doubts that he is capable of being a consistent winner. If nothing else, his bad luck should prevent that. And Kovalainen may be a bright prospect but has yet to prove himself in the heat of a Formula 1 race.

Everyone expects that Kimi Raikkonen will walk away with the championship, once he has the speed and reliability of the Ferrari to back his aspirations. I am not so sure. He will be joining a team that has come to respect and support their number two driver, Felipe Massa, and the Finn may find it difficult to carve a space for himself within their affections. Too often in the past we have seen what happens to a driver who fails to gain the wholehearted backing of the Ferrari team. Kimi has the speed to succeed but I wonder if he has the ability to make a team his own in Schumacher fashion.

So Alonso’s prospects for next year are considerably brighter than we might think. He has already demonstrated the driving skills and luck necessary to become World Champion and he will be riding the crest of McLaren’s determination to have a better year than this one. Add to that Ron Dennis’ excellent organizational and team management skills and you have a potential winner.

What it all means is that 2007 is shaping up to be one of the most closely-fought seasons for many a long year. As the last race of this season approaches, we may think we have witnessed a battle of the giants but we should remember that only two drivers have been in with a chance. Next year it is likely that there will be many more than that squabbling over the spoils. And that can only be good for the sport and the fans.

My bet for next year? Oh, I love outsiders so I’ll stick my neck out really far and say Jenson Button!

Renault today announced its F1 plans for the future and has confirmed that Flavio Briatore will continue to lead the team for the next two years at least. Their driver line-up will be Giancarlo Fisichella and Heikki Kovalainen and there will be two test drivers, Ricardo Zonta and Nelson Piquet Jr.

This news is every bit as important as any decision on retirement to be made by Michael Schumacher because Briatore has been a major factor in Renault’s success since they took over the Benetton team. He is very influential in the driver market and has shown great acumen in picking winners, Schumacher and Alonso in particular.

Renault President Carlos Ghosn commented: “Under Flavio’s leadership, the team achieved a remarkable double in 2005 by winning the Drivers’ and Constructors’ championships, and maintaining that competitiveness in 2006. I am counting on the determination, talent and effectiveness of Flavio and the entire Renault F1 Team, under the Presidency of Alain Dassas, to once again take Renault to the forefront of Formula 1.”

The Renault driver selection shows both a commitment to experience and a willingness to give new drivers a chance. Fisichella and Zonta are very capable and offer plenty of knowledge and understanding of the cars; Kovalainen is a potential future star, as is Piquet Jr. This is what Briatore had to say about them:

“Everybody at Renault is very optimistic about our driver line-up for 2007 and beyond. We have taken the conscious decision to build for the future, without compromising the stability of the team in the short term. Giancarlo is a proven force in Formula 1 and Heikki is already fully integrated into the team. After seeing performances in testing this season, we have very high hopes for him. It is also a pleasure to welcome Ricardo and Nelsinho, who each bring different qualities to the team: Ricardo will have a key role to play in preparing for 2007, while Nelsinho has shown this year that he deserves his place in Formula 1. 2007 is the start of something new for Renault, and we believe it will be an exciting season.”

There is something about being seen as the number one in a team that brings out the best in a driver. I think we will see a new Fisichella next year and he will be an excellent replacement for Alonso. No matter what our thoughts on Kovalainen may be, the fact remains that he is very new to F1 competition and it would be wrong to expect miracles from him in his first racing year.

Nobody has mentioned the other Finn, Kimi Raikkonen, however. One must presume that, since Renault have made this announcement now, the rumors are true and Kimi has signed for Ferrari. There is still a possibility that he will stay with McLaren for 2007 but this looks rather remote now.

And that has some bearing on the issue of Michael’s retirement. Increasingly, opinion seems to be that he will hang up his helmet at the end of the year and, with the news from Renault, I would have to agree.

Renault Press Release

As usual, this time of year is filled with more rumors of driver changes than you can shake a stick at. Michael Schumacher seems fairly definite for Ferrari next year but the other two hot properties of the moment, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen, are still suggested as wild cards. Renault is reported as trying everything to persuade Alonso from his McLaren contract for 2007 and Raikkonen could be with Ferrari or Renault or even stay with McLaren.

Such is the fuss surrounding these three that it’s easy to forget that there are other good drivers available in F1. Jacques Villeneuve made a very good point when he spoke out against the present fashion for throwing new wonder boys into a top F1 seat without them serving an “apprenticeship” in a minor team first. Even the great Ayrton Senna did his time with Toleman.

It will be surprising if Renault and McLaren take the risk of putting Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton into their second cars, in spite of all the rumors. Far more likely is that one of the smaller teams will take them on.

Which suddenly increases the stock of the older drivers. Jacques himself must be a good buy, considering his experience and continued motivation. And David Coulthard becomes the bargain of the year, being experienced, reliable and quick enough to win grand prix. Had Montoya continued, he too would be an excellent choice for any team.

There are other drivers too that are capable of doing a good job. Webber, Barrichello and Button still have tremendous potential if given a decent chance. And Scott Speed would be an obvious pick if you fancied a minor gamble that could pay off handsomely. He is showing good pace and has the added benefit of bringing American interest with him.

What we tend to forget very quickly is that a solid and honest second driver is always an asset to an F1 team. And it is not always a good idea to have two stars driving your cars; remember how Senna and Prost used to collide occasionally and steal points from each other. Second drivers care about the team, stars care only about winning.

So I don’t see a Schumacher/Raikkonen combination at Ferrari as the dream ticket. It would be interesting, of course, and settle a few arguments about who really is the best, but the team would suffer from the inevitable prima dona squabbles. Far better for the sport would be for the three hot shoes to be in separate teams.

I suspect that, when the dust of the silly season settles, there will be few new faces in F1 and even fewer surprises. Raikkonen will be at Renault, Alonso at McLaren and Schumacher at Ferrari as always. In the second seats will be reliable and proven drivers and any newcomers will be with Toro Rosso, Red Bull, MF1 and Super Aguri. Honda and BMW Sauber might experiment with one car but will keep a wise old head in the other.

It’s the way things usually pan out and it makes perfect sense to me.

There’s something about Finns and cars, you know. Back in the sixties, they dominated rallying. It was almost as if you had to have a Finnish driver if you wanted your car to win. We had it all worked out, of course - if they spent half the year driving on snow and ice, they were bound to be good at driving with no grip, weren’t they?

Then time marched on, the Finns began to disappear from rallies and the Spaniards and Frenchmen arrived. And, in all that time, we never saw a Finn in F1. Once again, we figured it had to be because they weren’t used to driving on good, smooth and ice-free tarmac.

Keke Rosberg arrived at the beginning of the eighties but we forgave him because he was really a Swede. But then came Mika Hakkinen. Can we ever forget how he rose to the occasion when asked to fill the shoes of Senna at McLaren? The guy was good and won races and championships to prove it. Suddenly all our theories on Finns were just so much speculation.

And, when Mika retired, there was Kimi Raikkonen to maintain the Finnish presence in F1. We all know how good he is; I suspect that he’s really the fastest of them all.

So what is it with these Finns? There are only five million of them, yet they provide large numbers of talented drivers in most forms of motor sport. There is something strange going on in the land of lakes and forests, I tell you.

And now we have Heikki Kovalainen, Renault’s test driver this year and in with a chance of joining their race team for 2007. Where on earth did he come from (don’t say Finland - you know what I mean)? A quick look at his record shows a quick rise to the top but nothing spectacular: a few karting championships, a 4th place in the British Formula Renault Championship, third in the British F3 Championship and victory in the World Series by Nissan (which explains his Japanese fan base). Then he came second to Nico Rosberg in the GP2 Championship and suddenly he was sitting in a Renault test car.

It seems that Renault knew what they were doing, however. Heikki has been quick in all their tests this year and is clearly a star for the future, whether or not he lands an F1 racing drive next year. There’s really only one thing left that I’d like to know about him…

How the heck does he see where he’s going?