Back in October last year, I warned that it would be foolish to write off McLaren just because they had a bad season. And I admit to some relief that they have proved me right so far (unlike Honda).

When McLaren are good, they are very, very good and they will not lose competitiveness as the season progresses. The car is marginally less quick than the Ferrari at the moment but is likely to get better as the efficiency of the team ensures that improvement continues. The well-oiled machine is up and running and will not let up until all memory of 2006 is erased by a championship.

There has been a lot of speculation that Alonso is becoming rattled by the speed of his teammate. Don’t you believe it. Fernando knows that he is still quickest and he has been in this situation before – in the Renault team, Fisichella was faster than him on rare occasions, after all, but was never going to threaten him for the championship. Alonso/Hamilton is turning out to be a brilliant pairing of excellent drivers but it is the Spaniard who will emerge as the main contender this season. Hamilton’s turn will come later.

Whether we like it or not, the reason for McLaren’s success and efficiency is Ron Dennis. Mike Lawrence of Pitpass has written a very good article on the man that explains the kind of commitment and dedication required to get an F1 team to the level of McLaren. Ron is probably the best team boss of the lot, and that includes Jean Todt.

So the most likely scenario this year is the double for McLaren: the contructor’s award and Alonso as world drivers champion. More debatable is what happens thereafter; Ron has declared that he will step down within the next five years and it remains to be seen what will happen then. Martin Whitmarsh will be the boss but the possibility of Ross Brawn joining the team could make them even stronger in the future. We shall see.

This has been the most difficult to write of all these early season assessments; once the McLaren steamroller gets going, there are few dramas or problems that get in its way. And it’s the difficulties that give us something to talk about – success is just, well, success…

Having seen how close Red Bull are to making the breakthrough to the front with their RB3, it must be said that there is another team that could do the same, if they can overcome their reliability problems. That is Williams, of course.

In contrast to the Red Bull car, the FW29 has looked good from the moment it turned a wheel and, more often than not, it has made better use of the Toyota engine than the factory team where lap times are concerned. But the Toyotas are finishing the races whereas the Williams tend not to.

This is Williams we are talking about, however; a team with more history and experience in F1 than most. It is a safe bet that they will have improved reliability by the next GP. Much depends on how quickly they can wring more performance from the tires and the chassis therefore.

Everyone will be using the four-week gap to Barcelona as an opportunity to sort out the cars and make them quicker. Those who can wring that little bit extra from their machine will be the teams that move forward – and Williams ought to be amongst those, building on their knowledge and understanding of racing. In fact, all else being equal, one would expect them to emerge from the chasing group before Red Bull do so.

At that point, everything will hinge upon the driver pairing of Rosberg and Wurz. It’s a strange line-up in some ways, the promising youngster allied with the solid but unpredictable returning veteran, but it is looking good so far. Nico Rosberg is obviously quick and has the same level head that we admire so much in Lewis Hamilton; Alex has lost none of his ambition, as demonstrated in his drive from the back in Bahrain. Both have a lot to prove but are unlikely to make too many mistakes along the way.

So things look good for Williams at the moment and I cannot explain the nagging doubt that lingers in my mind. I want the team to return to competitiveness but something prevents me from predicting podiums for them this season. They will score points, yes, and I confidently expect them to finish the year ahead of Toyota; but to get to the level of Ferrari and McLaren or even BMW? I just can’t see it.

In writing these articles on each team thus far, I have been struck by how close a season it is. There are such tiny differences in the performance of so many teams that it is hard to see just who will move forward and who will fall behind. It will only take a suddenly-discovered tweak in one of the chasing teams for them to leap into contention – and that could easily happen.

For Button’s sake, I have to hope that it’s Honda that makes the jump; but far more likely is that it will be Williams.

Toyota’s F1 team strike me as being the antithesis of Minardi in its heyday; whereas little Minardi oozed passion in abundance (and, at times, it was all they had), Toyota seem a passionless bunch, not quite sure of what they are supposed to be doing in F1. They have everything that Minardi never had – money, top designers, experienced team members, highly-rated drivers – yet they consistently under-achieve. I must conclude that they will never become a competitive team until they find passion somewhere, somehow.

Take Ralf Schumacher’s latest comments to the press, for instance. There seems no annoyance at the criticism leveled at his lackluster performances this year, merely a tired assurance that, when the car comes good, so will he. It does not even seem to occur to him that it’s the same old story we have heard repeated so often before.

Can you imagine Webber or Alonso in the same situation? They would not be holding back any caustic comments or accepting the status quo. Passion forces the unguarded statement from a man, ensures that occasionally he will stick his foot in his mouth.

Ralf’s statements are as bland and vague as if he had already proved his worth as the most highly-paid driver in F1; the reality is that we are still unconvinced of his talent. And the fact that Jarno Trulli is getting the best from the car while Ralf manages to fumble every race must raise questions in anyone’s mind. But not Ralf’s, apparently.

I detect rather more dissatisfaction in Jarno but he is too nice a guy to let much of it show. He is also perhaps more realistic than Ralf in assessing his own value in the F1 market – he knows that, if he fails to make a go of it at Toyota, the job offers will be thin on the ground thereafter. So he soldiers on, doing his best, and hoping that the team will eventually get it right.

Looking at the rest of the team, it is hard to say where this passionless attitude comes from. Pascal Vasselon, the senior chassis manager, is one of the most sensible people in F1 and is always worth listening to. Perhaps if he were more extreme, less realistic, we might see the flashes of emotion that mark the truly exceptional characters we have known in the sport.

And the car itself is a model of careful development, building upon what has gone before. What a pity that F1 is the one arena where that is not sufficient, where it is bold experimentation that can offer a chance of success, just as it also risks an embarrassing failure (just ask Honda).

It may well be that Toyota have found their level: always in with a chance of points but never a front runner. As the saga proceeds this season, it becomes ever more apparent that Toyota’s best chance remains to give up on the corporate team and put all their efforts into a small outfit that has the necessary ingredient of passion.

And that means Williams, of course…

Perhaps the biggest surprise in Bahrain was David Coulthard’s drive through the field to seventh before having to retire the car. Add to that Mark Webber’s unexpectedly high qualifying positions in the Red Bull RB3 so far and one begins to suspect that Adrian Newey’s design is a lot better than it looked in pre-season testing.

At this moment, the Red Bull are the most interesting of all the teams. We are becoming used to Ferrari and McLaren being at the front with BMW just behind them, but Red Bull are currently the most likely to emerge from the tussle behind the leaders and become a front-running outfit. The car gets better all the time and the team’s intention is to solve their niggling reliability problems during the break before Barcelona. If they can do that, they could be amongst the top teams for the rest of the season.

Now Red Bull’s oft-criticized choice of drivers does not look at all bad. Webber is wringing the utmost from the car in qualifying and is always good in the race; Coulthard is playing his usual game of disaster in qualifying but magnificent performances from the back of the grid. Don’t write off the old guys just yet!

The big question mark remains on reliability – but, if you’re going to have a weakness, this is more desirable than the mystifying handling difficulties being experienced by Honda. At least if something breaks, you can tell immediately what it is and find a fix before the next race; Honda, however, can only try a range of solutions to see what works and what doesn’t. Consider how worried BMW were about their gearbox failures in testing and how they have managed to find a solution.

So I see Red Bull becoming the fourth contender for podiums by mid-season. And, if that turns out to be true, we may have to watch Toro Rosso as well. Whatever excuses are given, the fact remains that their car is an RB3 clone and it has the same potential therefore. Should the team share in the knowledge gained by their parent team, the TRs too could become a whole lot more competitive, perhaps even running with Webber and Coulthard.

Which could be a lot of fun, too, considering the drivers involved; one team of experienced veterans and the other composed of young bloods eager to prove their worth. None of them will be champion this year, but they might score enough points to have some influence on the championship race. Considering how close that race is at the moment, a few points lost here and there to drivers coming through from the midfield could easily be the deciding factor in where the championship ends up.

Yes, I hope Red Bull solve their reliability problem – that would be one more factor to take into account in the resolution of this brilliant season.