Mario Theissen, BMW’s Motorsport Director, has been talking of his decision to swap Villeneuve for Kubica earlier this year. He is unrepentant, saying that his job is to ensure the success of the team and, if he has the chance to put a faster driver into one of his cars, it only makes sense to do so.

Which is true but overlooks the matters of contracts. As it happens, Villeneuve did not sue for the contractual violation involved, presumably because Theissen asked him only to step down from a few races so they could try out Kubica – Villeneuve was not prepared to do that so it could be said that his departure was a mutual decision.

Which is fine as long as the team boss can come up with a request that his contracted driver cannot or will not accede to. It might be interesting to find out what happens when a driver is prepared to do anything to hang on to his seat; does the boss sack him anyway and take the financial consequences? And how good is it for the team to be paying out money in legal fees and damages, money that would be better employed in development of the car?

I suppose it does not matter too much when you have millions to throw around. But not that I am criticizing Theissen – I think his attitude is correct from a team perspective. I’m just pondering on what effect this might have on team and driver morale.

Also amongst Mario’s statements was the news that Heidfeld was asked to let Kubica through when the Pole came up behind him in the Japanese GP but the German driver refused to do so, in exactly similar manner to the Trulli/Schumacher situation in the same race. As I pointed out in my article on the Toyota incident, this cannot be good for the functioning of the team. Once a driver has denied a request intended to help the team, there is always a suspicion that he will do the same again.

It’s a difficult area. Naturally, you want drivers who are determined to experience success and who will drive to the best of their ability. No driver is going to enjoy letting his teammate through – the reflection on their respective talents is obvious, whether fair or not. But, when that personal ambition gets in the way of the team’s success, it becomes counter-productive.

Probably the best way to go about it is to soothe the injured pride of the driver being passed by making it clear that he has a problem with the car. Worn or blistered tires are an understandable reason for being slow, after all. And no-one gets hurt in the process.

Although I think Mario Theissen does an excellent job, this nagging doubt about the handling of his drivers is yet another reason why I favor Honda for the championship next year, rather than BMW. The Japanese manufacturer also has two drivers who are competing fiercely with each other but we hear no rumors of squabbles or disagreements emanating from that camp. And that makes them seem more focused on the job in hand.

With McLaren’s announcement of Hamilton’s promotion to second race driver for the coming season, it looks as though there is only one seat left to be filled in F1: the second Spyker drive. That is assuming that Gerhard Berger is telling us the whole truth when he says there will be no changes at Toro Rosso for 2007 – the official announcement has yet to be made.

My bet is that Tiago Monteiro will get the Spyker drive. The team know him and none of the other drivers have been outstanding in their tests for the team. A threat of sorts came from Christian Klien but he has now been confirmed as a Honda test driver so that takes him out of the equation.

The teams that are sticking with their drivers for next year are Toyota, Honda, Spyker and, if you count the last few races of 2006, BMW Sauber. These are the ones that know exactly what they can expect from their drivers, have already established a working relationship with them and are satisfied with their choice. And that should give them a slight advantage over other teams that are still settling down after changes and learning how to get the best from their new drivers.

Or so it would seem. In fact, we all know that Spyker will not be challenging for race wins so any advantage they have will make little difference to the leaders. And Toyota’s choice seems typically conservative to me, a driver pairing that has already shown itself to be subject to some strain, with Ralph tending to underperform and Jarno more interested in his own career than in the success of the team. This is one team that could have done with a good shake-up on the driver front; I’d have sacked them both and looked for a good veteran and a promising youngster.

But that is not Toyota’s way. The reputation for reliability of their road cars is founded upon their philosophy that nothing new goes on the car until it has been tried and tested to the point of boredom. And this seems to be spilling over into the race team; they are not known for their introduction of fresh and innovative new designs in F1.

Which may go a long way to explaining their failure to deliver on the success we expect from a big manufacturer in the sport. Had they decided to go with a more radical driver line-up for 2007, their chances would be better, I think.

The other two unchanged teams, Honda and BMW, are the bright hopes for the future, of course. Both of them are looking very good, they have potentially exciting drivers and the ambition and ingenuity to succeed. My only doubt comes from BMW’s caution when it comes to their prospects for next season; they are low key on this and clearly do not expect to be challenging for a championship just yet.

That may be realistic but it also indicates a certain surprise at their progress so far. They are ahead of schedule and seem a little unsure of themselves as a result. And one thing we do know: any team that is going to win the championship must be absolutely convinced that they can do it.

Things are very different at Honda. They expected to be in amongst the leaders in 2006 and their disappointment at their results in the first half of the year showed in changes in personnel and rumblings from upper management. The fact that they did turn things around in the last races of the season shows that, whatever they changed, it was a step in the right direction and they are motivated now to erase the embarrassments of 2006. Conviction and determination will not be lacking in the Honda camp next year, methinks.

All of which is good for Button and Barrichello. Both drivers have made a habit of being in the wrong place at the right time or the right place at the wrong time. It may just be that, at last, they have managed to get everything right and 2007 will be theirs for the taking.

Here’s a strange little news item from F1 Racing-live: Honda’s Nick Fry has apparently criticized BMW Sauber for the way they intend to use their third driver, Sebastian Vettel, in 2007. He thinks that having Vettel drive the cars during practice will annoy both contracted race drivers as they lose valuable time on the circuit.

He may have a point. But why would he bother to say so? If a close competitor is making a tactical error, surely it would be best to grin and keep quiet? Admittedly, Nick “expressed delight” that BMW should make such an error but it makes no sense that he should announce it to the world, thereby giving his rivals the opportunity to realize and fix their mistake, if that’s what it is.

It reminds me of Flavio Briatore’s outburst against McLaren earlier this year. That made no sense at the time unless it was viewed purely as a chance to grab some attention during a quiet week for F1. Perhaps Nick Fry has subscribed to the Briatore school of public relations and the belief that any publicity is good publicity.

It seems a waste of words to me, however. In view of the fact that I have suggested Honda as a good bet for the championship next year, I find it slightly worrying that their team manager should indulge in such pointless statements. Shouldn’t he be far too busy preparing for next season to be worrying about what BMW Sauber are up to?

Maybe I’m just old fashioned but I like the quieter style of Ron Dennis. You don’t see him courting publicity or criticizing the way others run their teams – he lets them make their mistakes and gets on with his own business. Did you see any response from him to Flavio’s critique of his motorhome, for instance?

Of course, Nick Fry’s words were probably spoken in an unguarded moment and some journalist, desperate for some news in the off season, has run with them. And yes, I’m getting a post out of them too. But at least I didn’t headline it “Honda Slams BMW!”

A few posts ago, I made the crazy prediction that Jenson Button would be World Champion in 2007. That was done in a rash moment of enthusiasm but, since then, it has begun to appear a little less insane than I thought at the time. If ever there was a chance for a team outside the Big Three to get in there and cause a few upsets to the status quo, next year looks like being the right time.

All of the top teams, Ferrari, Renault and McLaren, are experiencing big changes for the coming season. Ferrari has replaced departing important members of the team with new faces as well as a new driver, Renault has lost perhaps the best driver of the moment and must rebuild with unknown quantities, and McLaren has to halt its slide from the top while coping with personnel changes. It is unlikely that any of them will have as bad a season as Williams did this year, but the chances of chinks in their armor appearing are increased by such fundamental changes. If one of the lesser teams gets everything right suddenly, this would be their chance to steal the trophies.

As far as I can see, there are only two teams who are poised to produce the kind of performance necessary to win races consistently: BMW Sauber and Honda. Both raised their games towards the end of this season and became visitors to the podium. If they continue this surge into 2007, wins become very possible.

Of the two, it seems to me that Honda is the more likely to come good. BMW were surprised to do as well as they have this year and that speaks to me of limited ambition. Their drivers, too, do not convince me. Robert Kubica may be the find of the season but he still has a lot to learn; it’s too early for him to have the consistency necessary to win a championship. And word is that Heidfeld is not as fast as Kubica in races…

Honda, however, will have pretty much the same team as last year (okay, I know they lost an aerodynamicist to McLaren but one designer does not a team make). Both of their drivers have something to prove – Barrichello that he is not just a cast-off second man from Ferrari, Button that the promise of former years is still there and just waiting for the right equipment. And Button will have been fired up by Bernie Ecclestone’s comments of a few weeks ago.

All it needs is for Honda to build a good car. That was expected this year but the competition proved too strong. If they are able to improve the car and have learned from the mistakes of 2006, the championship should be within their capability. And I pick Button over Barrichello because he seems hungrier to me.

Of the other hopefuls, Toyota seem unable to capitalize when things go right, it will take a year for Adrian Newey’s presence at Red Bull to have full effect and Williams will have their hands full adjusting to the Toyota engine.

So I’m giving Jenson Button one more chance. It would be easy to say Raikkonen will walk it or Alonso will knock McLaren into shape to surprise us all. But no, that’s just not me – to take the obvious route. I can still dream, after all…