Having made a wild prediction that Jenson Button will be champion in 2007, naturally I have been awaiting the unveiling of Honda’s new car with some interest. The launch has been quite low key and optimism reined in so that we are not led to expect miracles. I like that – we’ll see soon enough in the races just how good the car is.

The car is still in its interim black livery, the new colors not to be revealed until next month, and this makes it difficult to see what changes have been made. But it is performing well enough in early testing, apart from stopping on Button’s first lap in it. That is what testing is all about, after all – identifying any problems now rather than in the races. Both drivers seem very happy with it and Barrichello especially is sounding confident.

This realistic but determined attitude seems to run throughout the team. After the disappointments of last year and then the flourish at the end, no doubt they have learned their lesson and are not going to set themselves unattainable goals this time. Maybe it’s my hope that they can upset the old order (which has been unassailable for a while now) but I think we will see Button leading quite a few races this year. Even Flavio Briatore added Honda as an afterthought to his list of most likely winners.

Speaking of Flavio, I see he’s been having a go at Ron Dennis again, mocking McLaren’s takeover of Valencia for the launch of the MP4-22. And he’s right, of course – no matter how much of an extravaganza you put on for the launch, all that really matters is how well the car performs in the races.

On that basis, Honda’s launch was just right – never mind the hype, we’re here to do the business.

The first F1 squabble of the year progresses apace. Having failed to reach agreement over customer cars in 2007 at their recent meeting, the team principals are getting ready for war. Since legal mobilization takes time, it is most likely that scrutineering for the Australian GP on March 18th will be the crunch point. Pity those poor scrutineers!

Good old Bernie Ecclestone was there to suggest a few compromises, all of which were rejected, but at least he tried. But where was Mighty Max? Surely he would have been able to devise a way forward, given his new ability to work in harmony with the manufacturers. But I forget – that is only true when the other side has the power to really mess with him; little players like drivers and independent constructors are beneath notice.

In fact, there does seem to be a widening rift between the two most powerful men in F1, in style at least. While Bernie runs around trying to settle arguments, Max remains adamant that everyone must bow to the whim of the FIA. And given Bernie’s recent criticism of the FIA, it is clear that he is not entirely happy with the way things are run.

The fact remains that, if Max had been there to give a clear ruling from the FIA on the legality or otherwise of Super Aguri’s and Toro Rosso’s plans for the coming season, the threatened litigation could have been avoided. Had SA and STR been told that the FIA will definitely not allow any customer cars to slip through loopholes this year, both teams might have backed down; and, if the FIA’s view is that the cars are legal, Spyker and the rest would know that any protest will be futile.

As it is, we are faced with the prospect of yet another F1 court case and a GP with results pending until a verdict is given. Everyone knows how bad this is for the image of the sport but nobody seems to have a way of stopping it.

An unfortunate result of the general perception that there is not enough overtaking in F1 is that the FIA has become involved. For more than twenty years they have been creating rules with the alleged intent of making more passing opportunities. Unsurprisingly, nothing has worked and the amount of overtaking remains about the same. The really silly thing is that everyone knows exactly what is needed – a long straight with a slow corner at the end.

The easiest way to pass in motor racing is to slipstream or draught the car in front down a fast straight and then use the extra speed to come alongside and attempt to outbrake the other car at the corner. Without a long straight, overtaking becomes nearly impossible (but not quite – as already demonstrated in previous posts).

The light does appear to have dawned and the latest circuits, such as Turkey and China, have been designed with such straights and corners. As a result, they have become immediate favorites. But the damage done in previous attempts to increase overtaking remains and further changes are planned. The FIA’s CDG wing is an example.

It is my contention that the amount of overtaking should not be the concern of the FIA in the first place. Their job is to create a workable formula for F1 and then allow the designers to create the best cars they can within the stated limits. When the governing body becomes involved to the extent of dictating the design of wings, something is very wrong.

I have already written about this in my post, The FIA and the Aero Boys, and I do not want to repeat myself in this article. Suffice to say that you cannot legislate for overtaking and the FIA should stop trying. Now that circuits are being designed to the necessary configuration, the need to meddle with the cars in the quest for overtaking falls away in any case.

It is our own fault that things have come to such a ridiculous pass. By accepting the myth of “no overtaking in F1″ and then complaining about it, we gave the FIA the green light to extend their powers into this area. The only excuse we have is that the myth originated with the drivers themselves. Repeatedly they have said that the aerodynamics of modern cars are interfered with when following other cars closely – and this is true. But to say that this makes passing impossible is not only obviously untrue (since we see cars being passed in every race), it is also missing the point.

F1 aerodynamics have made it more difficult to pass but not impossible. And the difficulty level is what sorts the men from the boys. This is what it’s all about, after all – the sport is supposed to be for only the gifted few, those drivers who can recognize difficulty but overcome it. Out there on the tracks we see great drivers passing each other in spite of the difficulties involved. If we were to make it easy to pass, where is the glory in being able to do so? Do we want F1 to be like NASCAR, with constant meaningless lead changes? I sincerely hope not.

Formula One fans are the most informed in the world. To understand and become passionate about the sport, they have to develop a knowledge of engineering, aerodynamics, politics, drivers, circuits, teams, tires, weather, driving techniques, race strategies and a hoste of fine details. I am constantly amazed by the extent of knowledge and understanding amongst the fans – to be able to give such informed and sensible opinions as they do on every aspect of F1, they must all have done their homework. Surely it is time that they recognized this whole overtaking thing as a myth. We don’t need more legislation, we need less.

If you accept that there is about the same amount of overtaking in F1 as there has ever been, has this harmed the sport? Has it ensured that the fans drift away in their thousands? You know it hasn’t; F1 is more popular now than it has ever been, rivalling football as the most-watched sport in the world. From being a niche interest of dedicated petrol-heads, it has become a major player in the global viewer stakes.

If F1 is so boring, why do people continue to watch it in such huge numbers? The answer has much to do with television, of course; make the sport available to anyone with a TV and the spectacle will do the rest. Our perception may be that there is no overtaking but the reality is that racing at the cutting edge is gripping, with or without overtaking. Only those who were never going to be captured by the sight and sound of F1′s glorious and bewinged speed machines and the tussle between supremely gifted drivers can resist a Grand Prix.

Some of the greatest races have happened precisely because there has been no overtaking. Think of the Spanish GP of 1981 and Gilles Villeneuve holding back a train of six cars that were all faster than his slowing Ferrari. All true F1 fans recognize the skill it took to keep those cars back for lap after lap and to win in the end. And then there was Monaco in 1992, when Senna held Mansell back after his late pit stop for tires. The race is memorable in that Senna succeeded and Mansell never managed the overtaking manouver that looked inevitable.

We need to admit that overtaking is not what makes F1 racing exciting. There are moments of great overtaking manouvers (F1 Fanatic has picked out his fifty favorites – but I thought he said there was no overtaking…) but the real drama is the battle between talented drivers in closely matched cars. One of the highlights of 2006 occurred in the Turkish GP, when Michael Schumacher closed in on Alonso and challenged him for the lead. We were all fascinated by the struggle between two such gifted combatants in the best cars of the year. And did it matter that there was no overtaking, that Alonso stayed in front to the flag? No, we knew we had witnessed the essence of F1 – real competition between the best with everything at stake.

I am not saying that F1 does not need overtaking; my point is that it already has plenty and tinkering with the rules in an attempt to artificially make overtaking easier is always counterproductive. The FIA has been trying to increase overtaking for twenty years now. The result? Nothing has changed – it is still just as difficult to pass in a GP as it ever was. Meanwhile the restrictions on the designers have increased to the point where there is no room for ground-breaking innovation – we deal in thousandths of a second when looking at lap times. And still they talk of even more restrictions “to make passing easier”. Will we ever learn?

I have not finished. In fact, this has been such an enjoyable rant for me that I shall continue tomorrow. Now that I have mentioned the FIA, let’s have a closer look at their tinkering in this matter of overtaking in my next post.

To be continued…